Tuesday, June 12, 2007

French DSL is like a rude French waiter. Why?

Over at Wired, a non-economist writes:

France has more broadband DSL customers than most countries, including the United States. But if you happen to be one of the millions of customers having major problems with your connection, then life can be a living hell. High-tech service in France is like service in a Parisian cafe -- intermittent and snooty.

The problem is that there are at least 10 DSL companies battling for a share of the French market. The companies do a good job of selling services, often bundling phone and TV service with DSL. Unfortunately, the companies make promises to gain subscribers without having the infrastructure in place to make good on them.

Despite often appalling DSL service in France, there has been no severe public backlash.

In a country where government controls keep most critical services -- like medical care -- reliable and affordable, people are used to taking their complaints through the proper channels.


The author of this piece implies that competition is the problem and government intervention the solution. But what's really going on? What's the market failure here and what, if anything, can the government do to fix it? I'll be posting my answer soon - in the meantime, comments are open and I'm looking forward to reading your suggestions.

Monday, June 11, 2007

US States renamed for countries with similar GDP

Via Tyler Cowen, more information here:

Stata 10

...ships June 25.

Apparently, the killer feature is the new graph editor:

With Stata’s new Graph Editor, you can change how your graph looks. You can add. You can remove. You can move. You can modify. Anything. Titles, legends, axes, lines, arrows, markers, annotations.

'You can remove. You can move. Anything'. Well, I'm glad to see they didn't waste resources on their sales pitch.

Apple fans, the best is still ahead: I have a hunch iStata is coming soon in a store near you.

Sunday, June 10, 2007

Stories never told: The Cyprus referendum

A reader asks me to post more 'stories never told', that is events I believe were perceived and analysed in a particularly skewed or outright erroneous way at the time.

In my view, predominant amongst those is the Cyprus reunification referendum in 2004. Here's the historical background from Wikipedia:

The Cyprus dispute is the conflict between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots and also Republic of Cyprus and Turkey over Cyprus, an island nation in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Since 1974 the internationally recognised Republic of Cyprus has been divided. The dividing line which cuts across the country has created a physical and social barrier between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot Communities. The Turkish Cypriot community declared itself Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, condemned by UN Security Council Resolutions as legally invalid. It is recognised only by Turkey.

In 2004, the Greek and Turkish communities held a dual referendum on the so-called 'Annan Plan' (BBC coverage here). The plan was put together over a long period of extensive consulation and opinion-gauging and set the terms for the reunification of Cyprus. In the end, the Turkish-Cypriot side voted overwhelmingly in favour, while the Greek-Cypriots rejected it. The plan was never implemented and Cyprus entered the EU a divided nation. The reaction was the same everywhere:

European Commission: The European Commission deeply regrets that the Greek Cypriot community did not approve the comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem, but it respects the democratic decision of the people.

US State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher: We are disappointed that a majority of Greek Cypriots voted against the settlement plan. Failure of the referendum in the Greek Cypriot community is a setback to the hopes of those on the island who voted for the settlement and to the international community.

European Commissioner for Enlargement Günter Verheugen: I feel cheated by the Greek Cypriot government... There is a shadow now over the accession of Cyprus. What we will seriously consider now is finding a way to end the economic isolation of the Turkish Cypriots.

So what's wrong with these accounts? Quite simply, it is nonsensical to claim one party in a dispute is responsible for the failure to reach a compromise - if the terms were sweeter for that party, a deal would have been struck, or it would have been the other side withdrawing its support. To my knowledge, no-one publicly commenting on the referendum ever grasped this simple and obvious point.

Of course, the Cyprus referendum is by no means the only example where one party is blamed for refusing to accept a deal. Phrases such as 'country X responsible for stalemate in talks' find their way into newspapers and public discourse all the time, despite the fact such analysis reveals little other than the author's moral stance on the issue.

When an arbiter puts a plan on the table that ends up being enthusiastically supported by one side and rejected by the other, the fault very probably lies with the plan itself; the first reaction should be to question the arbiter's competence or motives. This is especially true when said arbiter has very good information as to the voting intentions of the parties at each side of the dispute: in the case of Cyprus, it was abundantly clear early on that the final terms offered were acceptable to one community and not the other.

Without going into the details of the final plan, I believe that a deal acceptable to both parties could have been put to the vote instead. It's an absolute shame this didn't happen, and completely wrongheaded to blame the Greek-Cypriot side for this failure. The culprit was an incompetent UN, unable to realise that an arbiter should have no preconceived ideas, no preferences of their own and no interest in the opinions of parties that don't get to vote. The arbiter's role is confined to making sure the damn deal goes forward.

What's the most popular flag colour?


Using a list of countries generated by The World Factbook database, flags of countries fetched from Wikipedia (as of 26th May 2007) are analysed by a custom made python script to calculate the proportions of colours on each of them. That is then translated on to a piechart using another python script. The proportions of colours on all unique flags are used to finally generate a piechart of proportions of colours for all the flags combined. (note: Colours making up less than 1% may not appear)


More here, via Statistical Modeling. The individual countries' pie charts can be clicked on to reveal the actual flag:


For those not interested in making this into a Sunday quiz, here is a very persuasive case for a governmental ban on pie charts (including the best-in-its-class pie chart joke).

And finally, the readers most serious about packing information in the most efficient (and colourful) way will enjoy this paper by Gelman et al. on turning tables into graphs.

Saturday, June 9, 2007

Super-Sachs

Greg Mankiw links to 'a new hagiography of Jeffrey Sachs' in Vanity Fair.

Jeffrey Sachs—visionary economist, savior of Bolivia, Poland, and other struggling nations, adviser to the U.N. and movie stars—won't settle for less than the global eradication of extreme poverty. And he hasn't got a second to waste.

Here is more on Sachs's 'Millenium Villages'. Hagiographies of Sachs occur with impressive frequency. Mankiw is clearly, if not explicitly, ironic; Dani Rodrik is also sceptical. Academic economists are certainly less enamoured to Sachs than journalists - but whether this reflects envy about the man's image in the 'popular' press or deeper objections to the substance of his work is difficult to tell.

Personally, I am a fan - here's an economist who understands that the science of economics can not merely be 'disinterested study' and that packaging and marketing are essential elements of public policy.

At the same time, I am not too sure projects such as the Millenium Villages are worth the effort; and it does feel like press coverage is consistently way over the top. But how can you blame the press? Jeffrey Sachs is a journalist's dream.

And to prove the point, here's an excerpt from PBS's 'Commanding Heights' documentary, directly from the horse's mouth:

Drafting Poland's Reform Program

INTERVIEWER: Tell me the story about how you and your colleagues were given basically an overnight deadline to work out an economic plan for Poland.

JEFFREY SACHS: We had these discussions with all of the Solidarity leadership, and one night David Lipton and I went to the small apartment flat of Jacek Kuron, a marvelous man, one of the most wonderful people I've ever met, a real hero of mine. We were in his cramped apartment, he didn't really speak English but he understood most. Chain-smoking like crazy.

And we talked for a few hours, where I was trying to explain, at least [in] my view, how you get out of this mess that the Communist system had left behind. Of course no one had tried it yet, this was all hypothetical. And the idea was to sketch it, and every couple of minutes that I was speaking, he would pound on the table, "Pah, pah, pah, yes, yes, yes, I understand." And we'd gone on, pah, pah, and it was really exciting. We went on for a few hours like this. I was exhausted and the room was filled with smoke and he said, "Okay, clear."

Our friend was translating, he said, "Clear, write up the plan." And we got up, I said, "Well, this will be a great honor. Doctor Lipton and I are leaving tomorrow evening or the next day and we'll send you something just as soon as we can." "No. Tomorrow morning I need the plan." And I laughed and he said, "I'm absolutely serious, I need this written down now." And we looked at each other and our friend, who was the business manager of the Gazeta Wyborcza, which was the embryonic newspaper at the time, it had just been opened, and it was working out of a kindergarten school classroom with the offices on slabs of wood over sinks so you could put down a computer terminal. He said, "We'll go back to the office and we'll write something."

And Lipton and I went back and we wrote up a plan that night, from about 10:00 in the evening until I don't know if it was 3:00 or 4:00 in the morning.[We] delivered it the next morning to Kuron, to Geremek, to Michnik. And they looked at it, distributed to the Solidarity members of the Parliament, the so-called OKP, the Solidarity club of the Parliament, and we were told, "You can get on an airplane to go to Gdansk. It is time for you to go see Mr. Walesa."

Friday, June 8, 2007

Friday Special 6

The Economist's KAL manipulates a virtual puppet of W. Bush (video). More here.

The amazing Oobleck (video)

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." - Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977, and other predictions from the past

Earthquake-spotting, and all the data you'll ever need on earthquakes

And finally, I want one of those (and I'm sure Steve Jobs is going to sort me out):



More info and demos here.